Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
